By Israel Kasnett, JNS—
As reports and discussions rev up concerning Israel’s plan to apply sovereignty to parts of Judea and Samaria, as well as the Jordan Valley, concern is being increasingly raised by detractors of the plan over fears concerning potential fallout, including frayed relations with international and regional allies, an end to prospects of a two-state solution, as well as the potential of Palestinian and even larger Arab violence.
A new survey conducted by the Maagar Mochot Institute for the Samaria Regional Council and published recently found that 68 percent of Jewish respondents in Israel favor sovereignty in Judea and Samaria. Another recent survey, by the Israeli Voice Index, found that a full 50 percent of the public supports applying Israeli sovereignty. Notably, this survey showed that 58 percent of Israelis believe that the Palestinians will launch protests. But will they? And if so, would this affect Israel’s decision?
According to Yossi Kuperwasser, a senior intelligence and security expert, and a fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, the evidence suggests not.
In a recent conversation arranged by the Jerusalem Press Club, Kuperwasser noted that Israeli sovereignty in these areas “would not cause mass protest and chaos.”
“The Arab world, including Jordan, will make some noise,” he said, “but they will not do much beyond that because they will not risk their relationship with Israel or this U.S. administration. They also know that Israel is not going anywhere.”
Reports indicate that Jordan’s King Abdullah is refusing to take calls from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s sovereignty plans. Last month, Abdullah also warned that such plans could lead to “massive conflict” and has purportedly threatened to cancel the peace treaty between the two nations.
Kuperwasser suggested that any negative reaction in the Arab world would be more of a formality than a reflection of the reality on the ground.
His opinion, and that of many on the right, divaricates greatly from those on the left. Continue Reading….
