By Shoshana Bryen, American Thinker—
The Biden administration has made clear its intention to talk with Iran. Since every negotiation has to have an endgame, consider both parties to the proposed conversation and what they intend to get.
Before the election, Biden told a journalist he wants to “build on” the JCPOA with a new agreement to “tighten and lengthen Iran’s nuclear constraints, as we address the missile program.” He also talked about Iran’s human rights record and its “destabilizing activities, which threaten our friends and partners in the region.” At that time, Mr. Biden said the only way to negotiate a new deal was to return to the old one. And in February 2021, as president, he said Iran would have to come back into compliance with the 2015 deal in order to have the U.S. ease sanctions.
So, the American negotiating goals are:
- A return of Iran to the terms of the 2015 JCPOA
- A new and longer agreement
- No Iranian nuclear weapons
- No Iranian ballistic missile program
- Iranian respect for human rights
- A halt to “destabilizing activities” — presumably in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and the Gulf
- An end to threats to Israel’s existence (one of “our partners in the region”)
- For which we will pay with trade and good relations. It is the Obama deal writ larger, and Biden is prepared to sweeten the pot, to get his conversation.
According to one report, the U.S. will ask Iran to stop only some of its nuclear activities, in exchange for some relief from U.S. economic sanctions. The new American proposal is, “more than anything, about trying to get the conversation started” said an “insider.” Reuters reports, “A senior Biden administration official declined to discuss details. ‘We have been clear that we are ready to pursue a mutual return to the ,’ the official added. ‘We have also been open that we are talking with our partners… about the best way to achieve this, including through a series of initial, mutual steps.’”
But why would Iran agree? The mullahs have their own end game. It includes:
Keeping the current JCPOA with its sunset clauses that kick in in 2025. Iran has been cheating on its commitments since 2002, but even if they hadn’t, the JCPOA gives the Islamic Republic a legal pathway to nuclear weapons capability.
Exercising their position as the “go to” power in the region and expanding the reach of Shiite governance to areas with Shiite majorities or large minorities. The Iranian-sponsored Houthi war against Sunni Saudi Arabia, as well as support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Iraq are parts of the plan. This is what Mr. Biden calls “destabilizing activities.” Continue Reading…