By CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, WASHINGTON POST—
There are two positions one can take regarding the Iranian nuclear program: (a) it doesn’t matter, we can deter them, or (b) it does matter, we must stop them.
In my view, the first position – that we can contain Iran as we did the Soviet Union – is totally wrong, a product of wishful thinking and misread history. But at least it’s internally coherent.
What is incoherent is President Obama’s position. He declares the Iranian program intolerable – “I do not have a policy of containment; I have a policy to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon” – yet stands by as Iran rapidly approaches nuclearization.
A policy so incoherent, so knowingly and obviously contradictory, is a declaration of weakness and passivity. And this, as Anthony Cordesman, James Phillips and others have argued, can increase the chance of war. It creates, writes Cordesman, “the same conditions that helped trigger World War II – years of negotiations and threats, where the threats failed to be taken seriously until war became all too real.”
This has precipitated the current US-Israeli crisis, sharpened by the president’s rebuff of the Israeli prime minister’s request for a meeting during his upcoming US visit. Ominous new developments; no Obama response. Alarm bells going off everywhere; Obama plays deaf.
The old arguments, old excuses, old pretensions have become ridiculous:
(1) Sanctions.
The director of national intelligence testified to Congress at the beginning of the year that they had zero effect in slowing the nuclear program. Now the International Atomic Energy Agency reports (August 30) that the Iranian nuclear program, far from slowing, is actually accelerating. Iran has doubled the number of high-speed centrifuges at Fordow, the facility outside Qom built into a mountain to make it impregnable to air attack.
This week, the IAEA reported Iranian advances in calculating the explosive power of an atomic warhead. It noted once again Iran’s refusal to allow inspection of its weapons testing facility at Parchin, and cited satellite evidence of Iranian attempts to clean up and hide what’s gone on there.
The administration’s ritual response is that it has imposed the toughest sanctions ever. So what? They’re a means, not an end. And they’ve had no effect on the nuclear program.
(2) Negotiations.
The latest, supposedly last-ditch round of talks in Istanbul, Baghdad, then Moscow has completely collapsed. The West even conceded to Iran the right to enrich – shattering a decade-long consensus and six Security Council resolutions demanding its cessation.
Iran’s response? Contemptuous rejection.
Why not? The mullahs have strung Obama along for more than three years and still see no credible threat emanating from the one country that could disarm them.
(3) Diplomatic isolation.
The administration boasts that Iran is becoming increasingly isolated. Really? Just two weeks ago, 120 nations showed up in Tehran for a meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement – against US entreaties not to attend. Even the UN secretary-general attended – after the administration implored him not to.
Which shows you what American entreaties are worth today. And the farcical nature of Iran’s alleged isolation.
The Obama policy is in shambles. Which is why Cordesman argues that the only way to prevent a nuclear Iran without war is to establish a credible military threat to make Iran recalculate and reconsider. That means US red lines: deadlines beyond which Washington will not allow itself to be strung, as well as benchmark actions that would trigger a response, such as the further hardening of Iran’s nuclear facilities to the point of invulnerability and, therefore, irreversibility.
Which made all the more shocking Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s dismissal last Sunday of the very notion of any US red lines. No deadlines. No brightline action beyond which Iran must not go. The sleeping giant continues to slumber. And to wait. As the administration likes to put it, “for Iran to live up to its international obligations.”
This is beyond feckless. The Obama policy is a double game: a rhetorical commitment to stopping Iran, yet real-life actions that everyone understands will allow Iran to go nuclear.
Yet at the same time that it does nothing, the administration warns Israel sternly, repeatedly, publicly, even threateningly not to strike the Iranian nuclear program. With zero prospect of his policy succeeding, Obama insists on Israeli inaction, even as Iran races to close the window of opportunity for any successful attack.
Not since its birth six decades ago has Israel been so cast adrift by its closest ally.
Charles Krauthammer’s email address is letters@charleskrauthammer.com.
I have found this article very interesting.
A prompt action on Iran is mandatory!! If not, it is to give chance to Iran to buy time for completing its nuclear program. Let us take action and do lobbying in America to change that policy of negligence towards Iran.
Solomon
Ethiopia
Mr. Krauthammer:
In your Washington Post article, “Abandonment”, you summarized the situation perfectly!
I wish Krauthammer would get away from the notion that Obama and his administration are – at least – partial victims of his own bad choices (not the same as “mistakes”). He knows what he is doing. It is calculated to please Islam first, with special emphasis on the Muslim Brotherhood, even though the MB is at ideological odds with Shi’a Islam. He wrote a good article, but he is giving Obama and his Muslim connections too much slack. Is he waiting for Obama to hang himself, or for Israel to do the dirty work Obama won’t participate in? General Dempsey smugly asserted that in an Israeli strike, they cannot expect assistance from the good ole’ USA. Israel is in God’s hand and will prevail one way or another. America is not. Wake up, people!
Hi Charles: Good overview but you are preaching to the choir, we have heard it all.
Something is going to pull the trigger. Is it going to be the uprising now going on throughout middle east. A lot a military build up in the area could cause strike. Something to cause Syria to use chemical weapons? Will Egypt decide to call for the million man gathering to march to Jerusalem. I am watching closely. Ezekiel 37 & 38 – something will happen to bring Russia into play. PS Keep speaking out against giving billions to these mid east countries. We need aid right here in America.
The free world faced a similar dilemna regarding a rocket fuel manufacturing plant in Nazi-held Norway during the Second World War. There was no way to attack the plant from the air then.
The solution was to seal the entrance using the material of mountain that protected the plant. We have drone aircraft capable of surveilance of the area, “Bunker Busters” and Stealth delivery aircraft to take care of the problem.
We cannot solve the problem by words which are about as effective as Paper Tigers. The only way to eliminate world terrorism is to stop supporting those who fund it and harboring it’s existance. You can’t negociate with a snake, the way to eliminate its threat is to cut off it’s head.