YORAM ETTINGER, in Israel Today —
Revolution in Egypt, the Tunisian government has fallen, and
there is speculation that Jordan could be next. On top of it all,
Lebanon is more fully under the thumb of Hezbollah and Iran than
ever before. The regional upheaval has enormous implications for
Israel. Israel Today reporter Ryan Jones spoke about the situation
with Yoram Ettinger, a former Israeli diplomat in Washington.
israel today: What do the Tunisian
and Egyptian revolts mean for Israel?
Ettinger: The Tunisian and Egyptian
turmoil should be a wake-up call for
the people promoting a “New Middle
East” and remind us of the actual nature
of our neighborhood. When we look
around at these countries, we realize
that not much has changed over the past
1,400 years in so far as this region being
a role model of volatility, unpredictability,
instability and violence as the
accepted norms for solving problems.
israel today: Are there lessons here
for Israel?
Ettinger: The tenuous nature of regimes
and agreements sends a message
to everybody, Israel included, with
regard to any peace accord concluded
with any regime. You sign an accord
with a regime, and the following year
or decade there is a 180-degree change
in the nature of that regime. You cannot
then rewind the tape and renegotiate
the accord. You are stuck with what you
previously agreed to.
So this should prescribe for Israel
an extremely high threshold for security;
Israel must have very high security
requirements. Rather than focusing on
peace negotiations themselves, the focus
for Israel should be on maximum
security which could withstand the
worst-case scenario, which as we see
now is inevitable in this region.
israel today: What must Western
power-brokers driving the
peace process learn from this?
Ettinger: The events in Tunisia, Egypt
and probably Jordan should put to rest
this over-simplistic, ignorant, detached
notion that the Palestinian issue is the
root of regional turbulence. !e current
events prove without any doubt that
Middle East turmoil has little to do with
the Palestinians, and would be going on
even if Israel wasn’t around. !e illusion
that one needs to pressure Israel in order
to stabilize the Middle East has not
thrown water on the Middle East “re, but
rather has fueled it. By pressuring Israel
and focusing on the Palestinian issue, the
West has diverted attention from the real
causes of turbulence in the region.
israel today: What about
Lebanon? Do Hezbollah’s
gains there portend war
on Israel’s northern border?
Ettinger: Like the other
nations, what is happening
in Lebanon is all within
the same framework of
unpredictability. Certainly,
there are concerns about
Lebanon, which truly
has never been
independent. It has always been subordinate to
Syrian interests and has always been an
arena for inter-Arab conflict. Every few
years there is a military eruption. It’s usually
domestic, but sometimes spills over
into Israel. But as important as Lebanon
is, it is more of a testing ground.
israel today: So where should Israel
be looking?
Ettinger: The most crucial area for Israel
is its eastern flank, the long border with
Jordan, which is Israel’s most vulnerable
frontier. !at border is only a few miles
from 80 percent of the Israeli population
and most of Israel’s industrial and transportation
infrastructure. !is is the border
that is most open to a lethal and devastating
o$ensive against Israel. In view
of the events in Tunisia and Egypt, the
indispensability of the mountains of Judea
and Samaria is more and more apparent.
For Israel to give away these mountains for
so-called peace would be an expression of
determination to repeat rather than avoid
past mistakes.
To give away these mountains
would
literally mean for Israel to give
away the most effective obstacle
to tanks in the region and to
provide a platform for invasion;
and this in a neighborhood that
is once again proving itself to be
totally unstable and unpredictable.
Only a suicidal tendency
could lead a nation
to make such a
mistake. !